(0.5u). Bryan Barberena to win Round 1 @ +300 to Return2 Units
Bryan Barberena vs. Jason Witt
Main Card Opener – Welterweight (170lbs) Bout – Approx. Start time: 9:15 PM EST
- Bryan Barberena has won 15 pro victories, 12 within the distance (10KO/TKO and 2 Submissions), 5 of them in the first round (per Sherdog.com).
- Jason Witt has been in 3 UFC fights, with 2 ending in round 1 TKO/KO losses in less than a minute. (pictured below: Witt being knocked out in his UFC debut by Takashi Sato).
Jason Witt is a competent fighter with a solid skill set, but he has an amazing suspect chin. Matt Semelsberger knocked Witt out in just 16 seconds. Semelsberger is not a fighter known for his power. Witt was not the first KO lose in MMA. This was actually his fifth pro fight and 6th if you count his amateur fights. Witt is a fighter who can turn off his lights at will, which makes him a huge liability.
Bryan “Bam Bam”, Barberena, is a fan favorite for his relentless brawler style and scrappy fighting style. He is a versatile fighter who loves to strike but can also do it on the ground when he can out-cardio his opponent. Although his power is not extraordinary, when he is compared to Jason Witt’s chin, it is impressive.
Bryan Barberena could either catch Witt early and give him a shot or slowly break him down in later rounds because of his superior volume, pressure, and pressure. His moneyline is still playable at the current odds of -250. However, since I favor him to win the stoppage at plus money, I’ll bet that instead. Witt will likely struggle to make his moneyline look worthwhile without securing the finish.
(2u), Two-Leg Paralay: Rafa Garcia Moneyline (-250), + Sean Strickland Moneyline (205) for +106 ( Return 4.12 Units).
1st leg of Parlay: Rafa Garcia Moneyline @ -250
(0.5u), Rafa Garcia to Win in Rounds 1 & 3 @ +170 ( Return 1.35 Units).
Chris Gruetzemacher vs. Rafa Garcia
Preliminary card – Lightweight (155lbs), Bout – Approximately. Start time: 8 p.m. Eastern Standard Time
- Rafa Garcia, Combate America Lightweight Champion and holder of an undefeated 12-0 record, was the victim of a short-notice UFC defeat to Nasrat Haqparast.
- Chris Gruetzemacher has been 2-2 in the last six years. He’s been stopped by all four of his losses (2 KO/TKO and 2 Submission), which includes his Ultimate Fighter exhibition bout.
UFC booked this fight to give their young, all-action Mexican fighter (Garcia), a layup against an older man who most people are shocked to see still on the roster.
Chris Gruetzemacher was once competitive with the UFC lightweight division’s lower-level fighters. As is so often the case with MMA, he’s now a victim to three things: injuries, father time, and a constantly moving conveyor belt of improving fighters. He was unconscious in his last fight against Alexander Hernandez for less than two minutes. Although that is to be expected after a long break, we didn’t see anything to indicate that he was ready to compete again at the UFC level.
This will be Rafa’s second UFC bout. After accepting a fight against Nasrat Haqparast, a highly sought-after prospect on short notice, his debut was made in March. He was a tremendous fighter, winning the first round by 2 judges’ scorecards (per MMMADecisions.com). After slowing down from a lack of preparation, he fought until the end against a very dangerous opponent. In that brief loss, he showed me enough that he is now at the UFC level. Gruetzemacher should easily be beaten at this point.
Garcia will be looking to get the early KO like Hernandez against Gruetz’. Although Garcia has only one KO/TKO victory on his record, I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens. His hands are deceivingly heavy and you don’t have to be a great knockout artist to defeat a 35-year old Chris Gruetzemacher. Garcia could win this fight in many ways. He could club-sub him (wobble him until catching him in fight ending submission), or take him to the mat to control him and score a submission. Or, he could simply beat him over the course 15 minutes because of his conditioning and work rate. All these options and pathways to victory are why I am taking Rafa Garcia as my opening leg in my two-fight parlay.
2nd Leg Parlay: Sean Strickland Moneyline @-215
Uriah Hall vs. Sean Strickland
Main Event – Bout – Approximately. Start Time: 11:45 PM EST
- Sean Strickland yields a striking defense of 67.9%, which ranks him 5th amongst the entire active UFC roster (Minimum 5 UFC Fights and 350 Strike Attempts by Opponents) (per StatsLeaders.UFC.com).
- Uriah Hall has taken in more strikes per minute. (3.54) than he has landed (3.34) in his 17 UFC fights (per UFC Stats.com).
Sean Strickland is an admirable person right now. Since his return from a 2-year absence due to a motorcycle accident, he’s looked amazing. He has now won four fights, one of which was pre-dating the accident. All three of his wins have been at middleweight. He appears to have improved his skills as a fighter. He looks solid and has strong offense, defensive grappling, and is very proficient in pressure boxing.
Uriah (pictured below), deserves his own credit as he is also on his own little run just when many thought that his career was almost over. It’s also a 4-fight win streak for Hall, with 3 wins against fighters no longer in the UFC. The most recent was a terrible and freaky leg break TKO against Chris Weidman in the first 20 seconds. This is not an extraordinary run, but it’s certainly not unbelievable, at least when you look back. Hall is still getting results and that’s all one can ask for from the 36-year-old veteran (37) on fight day. Although his striking technique is impeccable, he isn’t able to respond well when faced with pressure fighters. This is precisely what Strickland has.
Strickland will be seen marching down Hall in his unique boxing stance. He is expected to prick Hall as he tries to outmanoeuvre the more aggressive and younger fighter. Hall will still be able to score one of his highlight reel spinning KOs. But against Strickland who is also extremely durable, it makes it seem even more unlikely. I don’t know how Hall would win this fight, except for the Hall KO. He doesn’t have enough volume or cardio to defeat him down the stretch. It feels like a KO for the Jamaican. However, Strickland can score a stoppage at any time depending on how much pressure he applies or if he claims a decisive decision. Hall’s power is too much to be underestimated. Strickland’s moneyline is a good value and will be the final leg in my parlay with Rafa Garcia.
Scroll down for event details, odds and Christian’s complete card predictions.
Event:UFC Fight Night Hall vs. Strickland/ UFC on ESPN 28/ UFC Vegas 33/ #UFCVegas33
Location & Venue: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
Date:Saturday July 31st 2021
Start time: Main Card: 9 p.m. EST, Prelims 6 p.m. EST.
Where to Watch:Main card on ESPN/ESPN+, Prelims at ESPN+
UFC Fight Night: Hall Vs. Strickland Full Fight Cards Predictions
UFC Fight Night: Hall Vs. Strickland Main Event Prediction
Middleweight (185lbs). Uriah hall vs. Sean Strickland. Strickland via TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hall Vs. Strickland Main Cards Predictions
Bantamweight (135lbs): Kyung Ho Kang vs. Rani Yahya – Yahya via Submission
(W) Strawweight (115lbs): Cheyanne Buys vs. Gloria de Paula – Buys via Decision
Welterweight (170lbs): Niklas Stolze vs. Jared Gooden – Stolze via Decision
Flyweight (125lbs): Ryan Benoit vs. Zarrukh Adashev – Adashev via Decision
Welterweight (170lbs): Bryan Barberena vs. Jason Witt – Barberena via KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hall Vs. Strickland Prelim Card Predictions
(W) Bantamweight (135lbs): Nicco Montano vs. Yanan Wu – Montano via Decision
Featherweight (145lbs): Collin Anglin vs. Melsik Baghdasaryan – Baghdasaryan via Decision
Lightweight (155lbs): Chris Gruetzemacher vs. Rafa Garcia – Garcia via Submission
Featherweight (145lbs): Danny Chavez vs. Kai Kamaka III – Chavez via Decision
(W) Strawweight (115lbs). Jinh Yu Frey vs. Ashley Yoder via Submission
Bantamweight (135lbs): Ronnie Lawrence vs. Trevin Jones – Lawrence via Decision
Welterweight (170lbs): Philip Rowe vs. Orion Cosce – Cosce via Decision
Last Updated on October 3, 2021